U.S debt to rise to $19.6 trillion by 2015
Tue, Jun 8 2010
WASHINGTON, June 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. debt will top $13.6 trillion this year and climb to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015, according to a Treasury Department report to Congress.
The report that was sent to lawmakers Friday night with no fanfare said the ratio of debt to the gross domestic product would rise to 102 percent by 2015 from 93 percent this year.
"The president's economic experts say a 1 percent increase in GDP can create almost 1 million jobs, and that 1 percent is what experts think we are losing because of the debt's massive drag on our economy," said Republican Representative Dave Camp, who publicized the report.
He was referring to recent testimony by University of Maryland Professor Carmen Reinhart to the bipartisan fiscal commission, which was created by President Barack Obama to recommend ways to reduce the deficit, which said debt topping 90 percent of GDP could slow economic growth.
The U.S. debt has grown rapidly with the economic downturn and government spending for the Wall Street bailout, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the economic stimulus. The rising debt is contributing to voter unrest ahead of the November congressional elections in which Republicans hope to regain control of Congress.
The total U.S. debt includes obligations to the Social Security retirement program and other government trust funds. The amount of debt held by investors, which include China and other countries as well as individuals and pension funds, will rise to an estimated $9.1 trillion this year from $7.5 trillion last year.
By 2015 the net public debt will rise to an estimated $14 trillion, with a ratio to GDP of 73 percent, the Treasury report said. (Reporting by Donna Smith; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

uly 11, 2010
Crisis Awaits World’s Banks as Trillions Come Due
By JACK EWING
FRANKFURT — The sovereign debt crisis would seem to create worry enough for European banks, but there is another gathering threat that has not garnered as much notice: the trillions of dollars in short-term borrowing that institutions around the world must repay or roll over in the next two years.

The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the International Monetary Fund have all recently warned of a looming crunch, especially in Europe, where banks have enough trouble raising money as it is.

Their concern is that banks hungry for refinancing will compete with governments — which also must roll over huge sums — for the bond market’s favor. As a result, credit for business and consumers could become more costly and scarce, with unpleasant consequences for economic growth.

“There is a cliff we are racing toward — it’s huge,” said Richard Barwell, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland and formerly a senior economist at the Bank of England, Britain’s central bank. “No one seems to be talking about it that much.” But, he added, “it’s of first-order importance for lending and output.”

Banks worldwide owe nearly $5 trillion to bondholders and other creditors that will come due through 2012, according to estimates by the Bank for International Settlements. About $2.6 trillion of the liabilities are in Europe.

U.S. banks must refinance about $1.3 trillion through 2012. While that sum is nothing to scoff at, analysts seem most concerned about Europe because the banking system there is already weighed down by the sovereign debt crisis.

How banks will come up with the money is an open question. With investors worried about government over-indebtedness in Greece, Spain, Ireland and other parts of Europe, many banks have been reluctant or unable to sell bonds, which they typically use to raise money that they lend on to businesses and households.

The financing crunch has its origins in a worldwide trend for banks to borrow money for shorter periods.

The practice of short-term borrowing and long-term lending contributed to the near-collapse of the world financial system in late 2008 when short-term financing dried up. Banks suddenly found themselves starved for cash, and some would have collapsed without central bank support.

Government bank guarantees extended in response to the crisis also inadvertently encouraged short-term lending. The guarantees were typically only for several years, and banks issued bonds to match.

Other banks took advantage of the gap between short-term and long-term rates, borrowing cheaply from money markets or central banks and lending to their customers at higher, long-term rates.

A study in November by Moody’s Investors Service found that new bond issues by banks during the past five years matured in an average of 4.7 years — the shortest average in 30 years.

Since then, worries about Greek and Spanish debt and whether Europe is headed for another recession have caused new problems. Investors are unsure which institutions are in good shape and which are sitting on piles of bad loans and potentially tainted government bonds.

Bond issuance by financial institutions in Europe plunged to $10.7 billion in May, compared with $106 billion in January and $95 billion in May 2009, according to Dealogic, a data provider. New issues have recovered somewhat since, to $42 billion in June and $19 billion so far in July.

Bank stress tests being conducted by European regulators could help if they succeed in convincing markets that most banks are healthy. Bank regulators plan to release results of the tests, covering 91 large banks, on July 23.

Sandeep Agarwal, head of financial institutions debt capital markets in Europe at Credit Suisse, predicted that the market could be separated into haves and have-nots, with the healthy banks raising money fairly easily but weaker banks required to pay a premium. “There is cash at the right price for many institutions, not all institutions,” Mr. Agarwal said.

That could add pressure on the weakest banks to merge, seek government help, or scale back their activities. Some might even fold. The Landesbanks in Germany, savings banks in Spain or other institutions that have struggled may be forced to confront difficult choices.

A shortage of bank finance also could create quandaries for the European Central Bank, which appears anxious to wean banks from the cheap cash that it began providing in the heat of the global financial crisis.

If institutions are unable to raise the money that they need on the open market, the European Central Bank would have to decide whether to continue to prop them up.

“Banks that have trouble tapping new funding sources will have to shrink,” the Bank for International Settlements said in its annual report in late June. The institution, based in Basel, Switzerland, brings together the world’s main central banks.

Stephen G. Cecchetti, head of the monetary and economic department at the institution, called the refinancing issue “a vulnerability and something to be watched.” But, he added, in a telephone interview, “I am confident that national authorities will take the necessary actions so that it isn’t a problem.”

Banks insist that they enjoy the trust of the markets and will be able to raise the cash they need.

“We’re in a comfortable position,” said Horst Bertram, head of investor relations at Bayerische Landesbank, Germany’s largest Landesbank, which is owned by the state of Bavaria and local savings banks. He said that as a result of government backing and a radical restructuring last year, the bank had ample cash and limited need for new financing.

Commerzbank, partly owned by the German government after a bailout, said its liquidity was well within regulatory limits. Commerzbank “can refinance at any time at market conditions,” the bank said.

Even if there is no market meltdown, banks still face a transition to a period of higher interest rates that will weigh on profits.

The cost of borrowing is likely to rise faster than banks can pass it on to customers, analysts say.

Jean-François Tremblay, a Moody’s vice president who has studied the refinancing issue, said that so far banks had managed to roll over debt better than expected. They have increased customer deposits, drawn on cash from central banks, or simply reduced their lending and their need for new financing — which is exactly what some economists feared.

The Bank of England estimates that British banks will need to issue £25 billion in bonds every month to meet their refinancing needs, which the central bank puts at £800 billion, or $1.2 trillion. That means banks will have to sell new bonds at double the rate they have been issuing so far this year.

“There is a risk that banks alleviate their own funding pressures by further constraining credit conditions for customers,” the Bank of England said last month in its Financial Stability Report. “That would dent economic recovery and so raise credit risk for all banks.”

IMF Says U.S. Financial System May Need $76 Billion in Capital
By Sandrine Rastello and Rebecca Christie - Jul 30, 2010
The U.S. financial system remains fragile and banks subjected to additional economic stress might need as much as $76 billion in capital, according to the results of International Monetary Fund stress tests.

The findings, released today as part of a broader IMF report on the U.S. financial system, suggested that while the nation’s banking system is stable, it remains vulnerable. Home prices, commercial real estate loans and economic growth have the potential to cause shocks that could expose banks to more losses.

Under one scenario, small and regional banks as well as subsidiaries of foreign banks would need $40.5 billion in additional capital to meet a benchmark capital ratio of 6 percent Tier 1 common equity from 2010 to 2014. Under the adverse scenario, those needs rise to $76.3 billion, according to the report.

“Pockets of vulnerabilities linger,” the fund said in the report. The U.S. is recovering from what the IMF called “one of the most devastating financial crises in a century.”

Because the economic recovery is proceeding slowly, regulators must be especially vigilant in guarding against risks and weak spots, the report said.

The IMF also renewed its call for the Obama administration to push ahead with changes to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored enterprise housing companies. The report suggested a partial privatization strategy, in which the government would take over the GSEs’ public housing mission while privatizing investment operations.

Regulators’ Role

The IMF stopped short of recommending recapitalizing the banks it studied in the report. Instead, it urged regulators to monitor conditions, especially for smaller institutions with less market access.

The numbers “are not frightening,” said Christopher Towe, the IMF’s deputy director of monetary and capital markets who directed the assessment. The review process was created in the wake of the Asian crisis, and the U.S. is the first major economy to undergo it since the global financial turmoil.

“We are particularly concerned about the situation among the small and medium-sized banks, which are most heavily exposed to the commercial real estate sector,” he told reporters in a press briefing yesterday.

The IMF said second-quarter results underscore the balance- sheet risks identified by the stress tests. “Initial releases of second-quarter earnings results have been disappointing,” the IMF report said.

Real Estate

The IMF said about $1.4 trillion of commercial real estate loans will mature from 2010 to 2014, almost half of which are already “seriously delinquent,” with payments 90 days or more past due, or “underwater,” with loan values exceeding property values. Home prices are another concern, as are the spillover effects if problems intensify as they spread among institutions.

U.S. regulators will need to step up their efforts to coordinate oversight after the Dodd-Frank legislation that President Barack Obama signed this month, the IMF said. The report generally praised the new law, while also flagging ongoing concerns.

“In some areas we were a little bit disappointed,” Towe said. “We see the system of regulatory agencies as still remaining exceptionally complex with a very large number of agencies involved and we would have preferred to have seen a much more bold streamlining.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Sandrine Rastello in Washington at srastello@bloomberg.net Rebecca Christie in Washington at rchristie4@bloomberg.net;